Liar's Dice odds
These tables aren't transcribed from a book — they're computed at build time by the same code the game server runs. When you see 17% here, that is the number the house is playing.
The revolver: odds per pull
| Loaded | Pull 1 | Pull 2 | Pull 3 | Pull 4 | Pull 5 | Pull 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17% | 20% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 100% |
| 2 | 33% | 40% | 50% | 67% | 100% | — |
| 3 | 50% | 60% | 75% | 100% | — | — |
| 4 | 67% | 80% | 100% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 83% | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
Read it left to right: a cylinder loaded with one round fires on the first pull 17% of the time — one chance in six. Every survived pull spends a chamber, so the same single round is 20% on the second pull, 25% on the third, and climbing. A dash means the pull can't happen: the rounds outnumber the chambers left, and the previous pull already fired.
Bids: how many dice are really out there
With ones wild, a die helps your bid on two faces of six — the named face and the wild — so the expected count is one die in three. A full table of six players holds 30 dice: expect 10 dice behind any given face, and treat bids past that number with suspicion.
| 5 dice | 10 dice | 15 dice | 20 dice | 25 dice | 30 dice | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 87% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| At least 2 | 54% | 90% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| At least 3 | 21% | 70% | 92% | 98% | 100% | 100% |
| At least 4 | 5% | 44% | 79% | 94% | 99% | 100% |
| At least 5 | <1% | 21% | 60% | 85% | 95% | 99% |
| At least 6 | <1% | 8% | 38% | 70% | 89% | 96% |
| At least 7 | <1% | 2% | 20% | 52% | 78% | 92% |
| At least 8 | <1% | <1% | 9% | 34% | 63% | 83% |
| At least 9 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 19% | 46% | 71% |
| At least 10 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 30% | 57% |
| 5 dice | 10 dice | 15 dice | 20 dice | 25 dice | 30 dice | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 60% | 84% | 94% | 97% | 99% | 100% |
| At least 2 | 20% | 52% | 74% | 87% | 94% | 97% |
| At least 3 | 4% | 22% | 47% | 67% | 81% | 90% |
| At least 4 | <1% | 7% | 23% | 43% | 62% | 76% |
| At least 5 | <1% | 2% | 9% | 23% | 41% | 58% |
| At least 6 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 10% | 23% | 38% |
| At least 7 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 22% |
| At least 8 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% |
| At least 9 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% |
| At least 10 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% |
Spot on: how often the count is exact
The exact call pays only when the count lands precisely on the bid. That is a much narrower target than "at least" — it tops out around one chance in three, right at the expected count, and falls away fast on both sides. Call it near the expectation or not at all.
| 5 dice | 10 dice | 15 dice | 20 dice | 25 dice | 30 dice | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 1 | 33% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Exactly 2 | 33% | 20% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Exactly 3 | 16% | 26% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| Exactly 4 | 4% | 23% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| Exactly 5 | <1% | 14% | 21% | 15% | 7% | 2% |
| Exactly 6 | <1% | 6% | 18% | 18% | 11% | 5% |
| Exactly 7 | <1% | 2% | 11% | 18% | 15% | 8% |
| Exactly 8 | <1% | <1% | 6% | 15% | 17% | 12% |
| Exactly 9 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 10% | 16% | 15% |
| Exactly 10 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 13% | 15% |
Reading the tables at the table
Start from your own cup. If you hold two fives and the bid is “six fives” at a table of 20 dice, the question is whether four more fives hide among the 15 dice you can't see — and the wild table above answers for 15 dice at “at least 4”: about even money. Bids under the expected count are almost never worth calling; bids two or three past it almost always are. The space between is the game.